If there's one upset you should pick every single year, it's the 5 vs 12 matchup. Since 1985, 12-seeds have beaten 5-seeds 38% of the time. That's not an upset—that's practically a coin flip.
Why 5-12 Is Different
The seeding system creates a peculiar situation in the 5-12 matchup:
- 5-seeds are often overrated power conference teams - They got bumped up for TV ratings and brand recognition
- 12-seeds include dangerous mid-majors - Conference tournament champions with nothing to lose
- The gap is smaller than you think - By our metrics, it's often only 15-20 ranking spots
What Makes a Dangerous 12-Seed?
Not all 12-seeds are created equal. Look for these characteristics:
- High SOS for their conference - They scheduled up and competed
- Experience - Senior-led teams with tournament experience
- Defensive efficiency - Tournament games tighten up; defense travels
- 3-point shooting - The great equalizer in single-game formats
Red Flags for 5-Seeds
On the flip side, avoid backing 5-seeds that show these warning signs:
- Lost to multiple sub-100 teams during the season
- Struggled on the road (especially in hostile environments)
- Rely heavily on one player for scoring
- Poor free-throw shooting under pressure
This Year's 5-12 Watch List
Check our Bracket Projection page to see which 12-seeds we're flagging as "Cinderella?" picks—these are the teams with upset potential baked into their metrics.
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