Every March, millions of bracket-makers fall into the same trap: they look at a team's record and assume 25-5 beats 22-8. But that thinking ignores the most important factor in predicting tournament success: Strength of Schedule (SOS).
The Mid-Major Trap
Consider this scenario from last season: Team A finished 28-4 in the Mountain West, while Team B went 21-10 in the Big Ten. On paper, Team A looks dominant. But when you dig into the numbers:
- Team A's SOS: 0.485 (ranked 147th nationally)
- Team B's SOS: 0.612 (ranked 12th nationally)
Team B played (and beat) 6 teams that finished in the AP Top 25. Team A played zero. When Selection Sunday came, Team B earned a 4-seed and Team A got a 7-seed—and promptly lost in the first round.
How We Calculate SOS
Our algorithm doesn't just count wins against ranked teams. We calculate a weighted SOS that considers:
- Opponent's ranking at game time - Not their final ranking
- Location adjustment - Road wins count more than home wins
- Margin of victory - Blowouts vs. squeakers
- Conference strength - Updated weekly based on inter-conference play
Using SOS in Your Bracket
When you're picking upsets, look for teams with high SOS and lower seeds. These are teams that:
- Have been battle-tested against quality opponents
- Know how to win close games on the road
- Won't be intimidated by a higher-seeded opponent
Conversely, be skeptical of teams with gaudy records but weak schedules. That 28-4 team? They're ripe for a first-round upset by a hungrier, more experienced squad.
Pro Tip
Use our Sandbox Mode to experiment with how different SOS weightings affect the rankings. You might be surprised how much the field changes.